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Decision Tools

Connection circles

Map how the elements of a system influence each other to find feedback loops.

Overview

A connection circle arranges the key elements of a situation around a circle and draws arrows showing what influences what. Once the arrows are in, feedback loops become visible — chains that curl back on themselves — and those loops, not any single element, are usually what drives the system’s behaviour.

It is a fast, low-tech way to shift from linear cause-and-effect thinking to seeing circular causality: A raises B, B raises C, C feeds back into A. Spot the loop and you understand why the system accelerates, oscillates, or stubbornly resists change.

When to use it

A situation has many interacting parts and you need to see the loops, not just the list.

How to use it

Step 1

List the key elements

Choose the handful of variables that matter, and place them around a circle.

Step 2

Draw influence arrows

Connect elements that affect each other, arrow pointing from cause to effect.

Step 3

Label each link

Note whether an increase in one raises or lowers the other.

Step 4

Find the loops

Trace arrows that return to their start — those closed chains are the feedback loops.

Step 5

Interpret the behaviour

Reinforcing loops explain growth or collapse; balancing loops explain stability or oscillation.

Worked example

Mapping user growth: signups → content → search traffic → more signups — a reinforcing loop that explains the product’s takeoff. A second loop — growth → server load → slow site → fewer signups — explains the ceiling. Seeing both loops tells the team to invest in capacity before the balancing loop bites.

Common pitfalls

  • Including too many elements, so the diagram becomes an unreadable web.
  • Drawing arrows without noting direction of effect, which hides loop behaviour.
  • Confusing correlation with influence when placing arrows.

Frequently asked questions

How many elements should I include?

Five to ten. Enough to capture the system, few enough to read the loops.

What am I looking for?

Closed loops — chains of arrows that return to their starting element — because they drive the dynamics.

How is it different from a concept map?

Connection circles focus specifically on influence and feedback loops, not general relationships.

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